The Commerce Department released December 2025 and full-year 2025 trade data on Thursday, February 19, 2026. The release was delayed due to last year's government shutdown. December's goods-and-services trade deficit came in at $70.3 billion, a 32.6% increase from November's $53–56.8 billion and significantly above Wall Street's consensus forecast of approximately $55.5 billion.
For full-year 2025, the combined goods-and-services deficit was $901.5 billion, down just 0.2% ($2 billion) from $903.5 billion in 2024. Exports of goods and services rose 6.2% to $3.4 trillion; imports rose 4.7% to $4.3 trillion. However, the goods-only deficit — the metric most targeted by Trump's tariffs — widened 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion. The services surplus expanded to $339 billion from $312 billion, which is what kept the combined headline deficit slightly lower.
The year's trade pattern was volatile: companies front-loaded imports in Q1 2025 ahead of anticipated tariffs; deficits then shrank sharply mid-year after April tariff announcements (October hit the lowest monthly deficit since 2009); and deficits widened again late in the year. December's surge was driven partly by AI-related tech imports and gold trading swings, not broad consumer goods.
Tariffs did shift trade geography: the China goods deficit fell ~32% to $202 billion, but deficits with Vietnam (+44% to $178B), Taiwan (doubled to $147B), and the EU ($218.8B) rose. The day before this data release, Trump posted on Truth Social claiming the deficit had fallen 78%, a figure that does not match the official Commerce Department data.